In diesem Beitrag wird erstens die These aufgestellt, dass die konjunkturelle Erholung in der Eurozone allein auf die Ankündigung des OMT-Programms (Outright Monetary Transactions) durch die EZB zurückzuführen ist. Zweitens wird dargelegt, dass die Sparpolitik eine nicht tragbare Verschuldung...

In diesem Beitrag wird erstens die These aufgestellt, dass die konjunkturelle Erholung in der Eurozone allein auf die Ankündigung des OMT-Programms (Outright Monetary Transactions) durch die EZB zurückzuführen ist. Zweitens wird dargelegt, dass die Sparpolitik eine nicht tragbare Verschuldung...

We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the peripheral Eurozone countries during...

We present a simple behavioral model with chartists and fundamentalists and analyze their trading behavior in a floating regime and in a target zone regime. Regarding the floating regime the model replicates the well-known stylized facts like excessive volatility, fat tails, volatility...

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...

The rational expectations efficient market model of the exchange rate has failed empirically. In this paper we develop a model of the exchange rate in which agents use simple forecasting rules. Based on an ex post evaluation of the relative profitability of these rules they decide whether to...

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...