Auray, Stéphane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurélien - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025
. We study both a unilateral 10pp tariff increase and a global trade war scenario with retalia- tory tariffs of a similar … magnitude. In either case, tariffs are always sharply contractionary for US GDP, increasing inflation and widening the trade … of monetary policy to the inflationary effects of tariffs, and the importance of trade in intermediate goods for the …