We explore the effects that optimism bias has on the demand for insurance. Our theory is based on a simple binomial model of the demand for insurance in which consumers make optimistically biased assessments concerning the likelihood of future outcomes. From this model, we derive an insurance...

We explore demand for insurance in a setting where nonparticipation has been com-mon: health insurance. We present a stylized model of insurance demand in which consumers make optimistically-biased assessments about future health outcomes. The standard model would predict participation unless...

This paper extends the theoretical literature on underwriting cycles by assuming insurers have heterogeneous exposure to a catastrophe. Distinct from the existing literature on insurance cycles, we model optimal contracting by competitive insurers. Since losses take time to pay out, and insurers...