We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a “final” late-vintage chronology....

We construct a state space model for measuring real economic activity in real time (e.g., minute by minute) using a variety of stock and flow data, observed at mixed frequencies. Our data set comprises macroeconomic and financial variables: GDP, IP, unemployment, stock and bond market data, and...

We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between...