Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...

Several frequentist and Bayesian model averaging schemes, including a new one that simultaneously allows for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy over a set of simulation experiments. Artificial data are generated,...

In this essay six societal challenges and research opportunities that confront 21st century Bayesian econometricians are briefly discussed using an important feature of modern Bayesian econometrics: conditional probabilities of a wide range of economic events of interest can be evaluated by...

This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for occasional...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...