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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628398
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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544443
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
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Nonstationarity in GARCH models : a Bayesian analysis
Kleibergen, Frank; Dijk, Herman K. van - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122477
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Bayesian forecasting of value at risk and expected shortfall using adaptive importance sampling
Hoogerheide, Lennart; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2008
An efficient and accurate approach is proposed for forecasting Value at Risk [VaR] and Expected Shortfall [ES] measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377096
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Time-varying combinations of Bayesian dynamic models and equity momentum strategies
Basturk, Nalan; Grassi, Stefano; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - 2016
and risk features than very simple and very complex models. Combinations of two strategies help, in particular, to reduce … risk features like volatility and largest loss, which indicates that complete densities provide useful information for risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065
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Daily exchange rate behaviour and hedging of currency risk
Bos, Charles S.; Mahieu, Ronald J.; Dijk, Herman K. van - 1999
series patterns for currency risk management.Our approach is Bayesian where extensive use is made of Markov chainMonte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302131
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Adaptive polar sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of value-at-risk
Bauwens, Luc; Bos, Charles S.; Dijk, Herman K. van - 1999
applied within a Bayesian analysisof a GARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of theValue-at-Risk of the return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302625
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Combined density nowcasting in an uncertain economic environment
Aastveit, Knut Are; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Herman … - 2014
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features in order to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465155