This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using expost data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and...

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...

We take a monthly panel of German firms over the period 1980−2017 to examine the relative importance of time and state dependence in the decisions of firms to raise, lower or leave their price constant. In addition, we seek to estimate the relative importance of macroeconomic factors and...

The frequencies at which prices and wages are adjusted, interpreted as price and wage flexibility, are key elements in workhorse models used for policy analysis. Yet, there is little evidence regarding the relationship between these two sources of nominal rigidities. Using two large and highly...

We examine the relative importance of time and state dependence in the price-setting decisions of firms using a monthly panel of German firms over the period 1980–2017. We propose a refined version of time dependence by introducing different hazard functions for price increases and decreases....

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly...