It continues to be heavily disputed whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries. In most cross-country regressions, aid is considered effective only if it shifts recipient countries to a significantly higher and sustainable growth path. We apply an alternative approach...

It continues to be heavily disputed whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries. In most cross-country regressions, aid is considered effective only if it shifts recipient countries to a significantly higher and sustainable growth path. We apply an alternative approach...

The paper applies an alternative approach to assess whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries, based on the concept of temporary growth accelerations suggested by Hausmann, Pritchett and Rodrik. In addition to aggregate aid, we differentiate between major aid...

It continues to be heavily disputed whether foreign aid promotes economic growth in developing countries. In most cross-country regressions, aid is considered effective only if it shifts recipient countries to a significantly higher and sustainable growth path. We apply an alternative approach...

Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...

Zur Jahresmitte 2009 hat sich die Konjunktur in Deutschland annähernd stabilisiert. Einige Indikatoren deuten darauf hin, dass die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion nach dem Einbruch im Winterhalbjahr 2008/09 zuletzt nur noch wenig zurückgegangen ist. Gleichwohl ist die Rezession keineswegs...

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...