Mehr als die Hälfte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Euroraum wird für den privaten Verbrauch verwendet. Daher kommt der Genauigkeit von Konsumprognosen eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Da der Konsum maßgeblich von den Stimmungen der Akteure beeinflusst wird, weist die Europäische Kommission...

Survey-based indicators such as the consumer confidence are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity, especially for the future path of private consumption. Although they receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power appears to be very limited. Therefore, this paper...

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the...

Capital investment and exports have driven China’s remarkable economic growth for decades, but recent trends have put pressure on the government to move to a more consumption-driven model of growth. Unfortunately, China’s institutional framework does little at the moment to spur household...

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the...

The Chinese model for economic growth is further transforming. While the rise in output was heavily based on investment and export activities in recent decades, private consumption is expected to become a driver for growth in the period ahead. However, the conditions for higher consumer demand...

We investigate the long run relationship between private consumption, disposable income and wealth approximated by equity and house price indices for a panel of 15 industrialized countries. Consumption, income and wealth are cointegrated in their common components. The impact of house prices...

The Chinese model for economic growth is undergoing a fundamental reorientation. While output has been driven by investments and exports in recent decades, private consumption is expected to become a major trigger for future GDP growth. However, the conditions for higher demand from households...

The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the...

Im Euroraum und vor allem in Deutschland hat sich die Konjunktur seit dem Boom der "New Economy" lange Zeit nur verhalten entwickelt. Ein wesentlicher Grund dafür war die schwache Dynamik der Binnennachfrage, insbesondere der Konsumausgaben der privaten Haushalte. Sie haben in Deutschland in...