Vorhersagen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutschland meist für die Ebene der Gesamtwirtschaft durchgeführt. Sie sind jedoch nicht auf die regionalen Verhältnisse übertragbar. Signifikante Abweichungen können sich unter anderem wegen einer unterschiedlichen Sektoralstruktur...

German business cycle forecasts refer to the whole country. However, the usefulness of these forecasts at the regional level is not uncontroversial. Significant deviations between regional and national forecasts could occur if the sectoral structure is different. In this case, the forecast for...

Vorhersagen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutschland meist für die Ebene der Gesamtwirtschaft durchgeführt. Sie sind jedoch nicht auf die regionalen Verhältnisse übertragbar. Signifikante Abweichungen können sich unter anderem wegen einer unterschiedlichen Sektoralstruktur...

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target level especially since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run relationship between the variables entering the money demand function. Instead the equation appears to be increasingly...

We investigate hysteresis and persistence behaviour in the course of unemployment in EU countries and US states by means of first and second generation panel unit root tests. While the former tests assume independent cross sections, the latter control for dependencies. The first generation tests...

In this paper the seasonal unit root test of Hylleberg et al. (1990) is generalized to cover a heterogenous panel. The procedure follows the work of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2002). Test statistics are proposed and critical values are obtained by simulations. Moreover, the properties of the tests...

This paper provides an empirical analysis on the determination of wages at the sectoral level in main industrial economies. Nominal wages are bargained between labour unions and employers in imperfect competitive markets, where spillovers across sectors might occur. Using a principal component...

Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and...

Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in...

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model)....