The recent U.S. consumption boom and the subsequent surge in mortgage defaults have been linked to mortgage equity withdrawals (MEWs). MEWs are correlated with covariates consistent with a permanent income framework augmented for credit-constraints. Nevertheless, many households are financially...

Most U.S. house price models break down in the mid-2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the subprime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing...

The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of U.S. house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first-time buyers into a model of...

This paper analyzes how risk premia—and other factors affecting the comparative advantages of security-funded versus deposit-funded short-run debt—altered the relative use of debt funded by securities markets since the early-1960s and the relative use of commercial paper during the recent...

This paper analyzes how risk and other factors altered the relative use of short-term business debt funded by the shadow banking system since the early 1960s. Results indicate that the share was affected over the long-run not only by changing information and reserve requirement costs, but also...

The increasing polarization of Congressional voting patterns has been attributed to factors including generational shifts, economic conditions, increased media fragmentation, and greater income inequality. The first of these factors is difficult to test with time series data owing to the low...

Rising income inequality and political polarization have led some to hypothesize that the two are causally linked. Properly interpreting such correlations is complicated by the multiple factors that drive each of these phenomena, potential feedbacks between inequality and polarization,...

The consumption behaviour of U.K., U.S. and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture...

This paper analyzes the meltdown of the commercial paper market during the Great Depression, and relates those findings to the recent financial crisis. Theoretical models of financial frictions and information problems imply that lenders will make fewer noncollateralized loans or investments and...