This paper introduces four models of conditional heteroskedasticity that contain markov switching parameters to examine their multi-period stock-market volatility forecasts as predictions of options-implied volatilities. The volatility model that best predicts the behavior of the optionsimplied...

This article presents a new type of business-cycle index that allows for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country, cross-country comparisons of business-cycle correlation and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle. The paper examines...

In Korea's high-growth economy, the Bank of Korea had been willing to tolerate double-digit inflation, provided that it remained at "non-explosive" levels. In this article, we estimate a monetary policy feedback rule for Korea and find that the upper threshold of tolerable inflation for the Bank...

We estimate a multivariate autoregressive fractionally-integrated moving-average (ARFIMA) model to illustrate a cointegration testing methodology based on joint estimates of the fractional orders of integration of a cointegrating vector and its parent series. Although previous work has...

This paper attempts to bridge the gap between the theoretical literature examining how innovation affects income across countries and the empirical literature examining how relative wages within a country change over time. We test the hypothesis that the relative wage between workers in high-and...

The dynamic response of Black market premia to domestic shocks is an important issue in the design and implementation of stabilization and reform programs. We use a vector autoregressive fractionally integrated model to provide new evidence on the dynamics of the official and Black market...

This article tests for asymmetry in thebehavior of bank lending rates by testing the hypothesis that the prime rate responds more fully and quickly to increase than decreases in market interest rates. The econometric methodology used is better suited to the discreteness and rigidity of the prime...

This paper extends McCallum?s (1987) nominal targeting rule to a small open economy by allowing for feedback from the exchange rate. Instead of setting parameters in a McCallum-type targeting rule and simulating, the parameters are estimated using a markov switching model. We argue that a model...

The Chicago Board Options Exchange concurrently listed European-style and American-style options on the Standard and Poor?s 500 Index from April 2, 1986 through June 20, 1986. We match near-the-money American option quotes with the most nearly contemporaneous, otherwise identical, European...

One simple test of the long-run viability of an exchange-rate peg, which complements tests based on market expectations, is to ask whether the implicit inflation target ofthe pegging country is the same as that of the anchor country. If the implicit inflation targets of the two countries are...