For nearly two years, the two of us have had a running discussion of the costs and benefits of automatic stays in bankruptcy for qualified financial contracts (QFCs) such as derivatives and repurchase agreements, particularly those held by systemically important major dealer banks. Under current...

I explain the key failure mechanics of large dealer banks, and some policy implications. This is not a review of the Financial crisis of 2007-2009. Systemic risk is considered only in passing. Both the Financial crisis and the systemic importance of large dealer banks are nevertheless obvious...

We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of corporate default, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. For U.S. Industrial firms, based on over 390,000 firm-months of data spanning 1979 to 2004, the level and shape...