We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

Trade economists have for long considered gravity models to estimate unexhausted potentials for bilateral trade. Similar to the discrepancy between "normal" and "actual" bilateral trade, one may ask the question about the difference between "normal" and actual bilateral multinational activity....

The authors examine the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. They are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. The...