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Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2008

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299141

Transparency, disclosure and the federal reserve

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

This paper assesses the change in Federal Reserve policy introduced in 1999, with the publication of statements about the outlook for monetary policy (and later about the balance of risks) immediately after each FOMC meeting. We find that markets anticipated monetary policy decisions equally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604503

Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

The paper assesses the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central … Bank and their effectiveness. We find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decisionmaking … strategy amid a collegial approach to decision-making, while the Bank of England is using a collegial communication strategy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604534

How should central banks communicate?

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

The paper shows that central bank communication is a key determinant of the market’s ability to anticipate monetary … policy decisions and the future path of interest rates. Comparing communication policies by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of … the diversity of views on the economic outlook that enhance the effectiveness of central bank communication. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604603

The timing of central bank communication

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank communicate with the public, and under what circumstances …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604611

Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worst-performers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604741