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Information acquisition ahead of monetary policy announcements

Ehrmann, Michael; Hubert, Paul - 2023

How do financial markets acquire information about upcoming monetary policy decisions, beyond their reaction to central bank signals? This paper hypothesises that sharing information among investors can improve expectations, especially in the presence of disagreement or uncertainty about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374453

Digitalisation and the economy

Dedola, Luca; Ehrmann, Michael; Hoffmann, Peter; Lamo, Ana - 2023

Digitalisation has fundamentally changed the global economy and will continue to do so. This paper draws on economic research to identify some of its key implications for labour markets, inequality, e-commerce and the financial system. Beyond its potential to boost productivity and living...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374597

Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance

Ehrmann, Michael; Gaballo, Gaetano; Hoffmann, Peter; … - 2019

Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142108

Geography or skills : what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

Berger, Helge (contributor); Ehrmann, Michael (contributor); … - 2008

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726321

The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts

Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W.; … - 2010

announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output … (economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not … ; disagreement ; survey expectations ; monetary policy ; inflation targeting ; central bank communication ; forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969574

Interbank lending and monetary policy transmission : evidence for Germany

Ehrmann, Michael; Worms, Andreas - 2001

This paper presents empirical evidence on the behaviour of interbank lending in Germany after a monetary policy impulse. Our VAR analysis shows that following a monetary contraction, the banking system as a whole attracts additional funds from foreign banks. Whereas small cooperative and savings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419387

Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area

Ehrmann, Michael; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Martínez … - 2001

This paper offers a comprehensive comparison of the structure of banking and financial markets in the euro area. Based on this, several hypotheses about the role of banks in monetary policy transmission are developed. Many of the predictions that have been proposed for the U.S. are deemed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419463

Household risk management and actual mortgage choice in the euro area

Ehrmann, Michael; Ziegelmeyer, Michael - 2014

Mortgages constitute the largest part of household debt. An essential choice when taking out a mortgage is between fixed-interest-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-interest-rate mortgages (ARMs). However, so far, no comprehensive cross-country study has analyzed what determines household...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235889

Starting from a blank page? : semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility

Ehrmann, Michael; Talmi, Jonathan - 2016

Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517131

Firm size and monetary policy transmission : evidence from German business survey data : presented at CEFifo conference "Academic Use of ifo Survey Data", December 2003

Ehrmann, Michael - 2004

Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission of monetary policy. The business conditions of small firms are found to be somewhat more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449239