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Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2004

This paper investigates whether the degree and the nature of economic and monetary policy interdependence between the United States and the euro area have changed with the advent of EMU. Using real-time data, it addresses this issue from the perspective of financial markets by analysing the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639396

Taking stock

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2004

This paper analyses the effects of US monetary policy on stock markets. We find that, on average, a tightening of 50 basis points reduces returns by about 3%. Moreover, returns react more strongly when no change had been expected, when there is a directional change in the monetary policy stance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639408

Exchange rates and fundamentals

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2004

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639419

Euro area inflation differentials

Angeloni, Ignazio; Ehrmann, Michael - 2004

We build a stylised 12-country model of the euro area and use it to analyse why differences in national inflation and … growth rates arise within the European monetary union. We find that inflation persistence is a key potential explanatory … mechanism across countries, count less. We also look at how a monetary policy geared to area-wide average inflation affects …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639448

The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts

Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2010

announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output … (economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640413

Memories of high inflation

Ehrmann, Michael; Tzamourani, Panagiota - 2009

Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that … memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high … inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640518

Central bank communication on financial stability

Born, Benjamin; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2011

Central banks regularly communicate about financial stability issues, by publishing Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) and through speeches and interviews. The paper asks how such communications affect financial markets. Building a unique dataset, it provides an empirical assessment of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640771

Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

The paper assesses the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank and their effectiveness. We find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decisionmaking process in the committee. The paper shows that the Federal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604534

How should central banks communicate?

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2005

The paper shows that central bank communication is a key determinant of the market’s ability to anticipate monetary policy decisions and the future path of interest rates. Comparing communication policies by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the ECB since 1999, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604603

Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multicultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604624