We empirically test Gabaix and Maggiori (2015)'s prediction that currencies are repriced by the country's external capital dependence when financial constraints of FX intermediaries change. Using solvency indicators, we develop a novel intermediary constraints index capturing riskbearing...

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the...

We analyze the effect of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on bilateral foreign portfolio investment in equity and debt securities. We find that expropriation risk and the level of a BIT's investor protection are complementary. Applying a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood model to a panel of...

We introduce a novel currency risk measure based on American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using a multifactor pricing model, we exploit ADR investors' exposure to potential devaluation losses to derive an indicator of currency risk. Using weekly data for a sample of 831 ADRs located in 23...

In the course of eurozone exit, the underlying stocks of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) would be redenominated from euros into the new national currency. We exploit ADR investors' exposure to currency redenomination losses to derive a novel measure of eurozone exit risk. We find that while...

Staatliche Zahlungsausfälle haben nicht selten politische Ursachen. Während ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen wie etwa Wirtschaftswachstum, Finanzstabilität oder globale Investorenstimmungen die Zahlungsfähigkeit eines Staates beeinflussen, wird die tatsächliche Rückzahlung von Staatsschulden...

We isolate the direct bank-to-sovereign distress channel within the Eurozone's sovereignbank-loop by exploiting the global, non-Eurozone related variation in stock prices. We instrument banking sector stock returns in the Eurozone with exposure-weighted stock market returns from non-Eurozone...

Using daily data for 34 emerging markets in the period 1994-2016, we find robust evidence that higher export commodity prices are associated with higher sovereign bond returns (indicating lower sovereign risk). The economic effect is especially pronounced for heavy commodity exporters. Examining...

This paper analyzes the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on sovereign bond returns of 25 emerging markets from 1993 to 2016. Under a BIT, foreign investors can use an international arbitration scheme to enforce compensation claims against the domestic government in case of direct...

This paper analyzes the link between political factors and sovereign bond holdings of US investors in 60 countries over the 2003-2013 period. We find that, in general, US investors hold more bonds in countries with few political constraints on the government. Moreover, US investors respond to...