This paper assesses the impact of economic policy uncertainty to UK monetary policy stance and exchange rate movements in light of the UK's decision to leave the European Union. Our results show that the economic significance of exchange rate movements heightens during the Referendum period. We...

This paper uses tools from the classical theory of inflation for UK Consumer Price Inflation from 1970Q1 to 2017Q4. In particular, we adopt augmented Phillips curve type equations within a linear and regime-switching framework where regimes are governed by previous inflation rates. Our...

We examine the dynamic impact of liquidity shocks resonating in stock and housing markets on real GDP growth. We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility to US data from 1970 to 2014. GDP becomes highly sensitive to house market liquidity shocks as disruptions...

This paper examines the relation between GDP growth, Divisia money growth, CPI inflation, financial stress, and the United Kingdom's economic policy uncertainty in the context of its departure from the European Union. We employ two Bayesian VAR models which account for the extreme observations...

This paper examines the inflationary impact of domestic and global liquidity conditions on UK inflation through the lens of monetary aggregates. To do so, we rely on standard linear models as well as non-linear models that allow for regime switching behaviour in terms of a contained regime (when...