Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle...

Oil prices rose sharply prior to the onset of the 2007–2009 recession. Hamilton [in the <italic>Palgrave Dictionary of Macroeconomics</italic> (2008)] noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increases in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether...