Showing 1 - 10 of 56
This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several … roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock's return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904149
This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec- tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692937
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as … mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices: occasional shocks may lead agents to lower their risk estimate and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763196
This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec?tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506052
that maximize (risk-adjusted) expected profits. A real-time learning formulation yields endogenous switching between … equilibria. We demonstrate that a real-time learning version of the model, calibrated to U.S. stock data, is capable of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051490
A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678816
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as … several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008622068
under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298274
We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604601