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This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several … roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock's return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904149
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as … mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices: occasional shocks may lead agents to lower their risk estimate and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763196
that maximize (risk-adjusted) expected profits. A real-time learning formulation yields endogenous switching between … equilibria. We demonstrate that a real-time learning version of the model, calibrated to U.S. stock data, is capable of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051490
This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec?tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506052
This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as … several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008622068
This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec- tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692937
A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678816
under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298274
models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply … expectational instability of private agents' learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey … learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012148021