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Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy : An Overview of Recent Research
Evans, George W. - 2008
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725765
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Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2003
A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075826
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Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2002
A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014114944
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Adaptive Learning, Endogenous Inattention, and Changes in Monetary Policy
Branch, William; Carlson, John B.; Evans, George W.; … - 2007
This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw, and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker's preferences for price vs. output stability, the learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014223413
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Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2002
A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014134547
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Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules
Evans, George W. - 2008
We consider the robust stability of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that for operational forms of policy rules, ie rules that do not depend on contemporaneous values...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012726161
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Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design
Honkapohja, Seppo; Evans, George W. - 2003
We review the recent work on interest rate setting, which emphasizes the desirability of designing policy to ensure stability under private agent learning. Appropriately designed expectations based rules can yield optimal rational expectations equilibria that are both determinate and stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089471
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Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2000
Eine auf den Fundamentaldaten beruhende Regelbindung der Geldpolitik ohne Selbstverpflichtung, die bei vollkommen … geeigneter Weise in die optimale Geldpolitik einbezogen werden. Diese eindeutige Schlußfolgerung gilt auch dann, wenn sich der … geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger und die privaten Akteure in einem simultanen Lernprozess befinden. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, wie …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418901
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Equilibrium selection, observability and backward-stable solutions
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - In: Journal of monetary economics 98 (2018), pp. 1-10
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012109003
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Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2000
A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001542195