We develop a structural cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model with weakly exogenous foreign variables, suitable for a small open economy like South Africa. This type of model is known as an augmented vector error correction model (VECM), referred to by VECX*. We compile the foreign...

This paper investigates the effect of remittance inflows on the real exchange rate in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using annual data from 1980 to 2008 for 34 SSA countries, generalised method of moments by Arellano and Bover (1995) andfeasible generalised least squares by Parks (1967) and Kmenta...

Credit portfolio managers must be able to identify the interdependencies between exposures in a portfolio and be able to relate credit risk to tangible portfolio effects on which action could be taken. To these ends, this paper draws on the macroeconometric vector error correcting model (VECM)...

This study investigates the asymmetric and time-varying causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model framework. The MS-VAR model is capable of determining both the sign and direction of...

This paper analyses the empirical relationship between inflation and growth using a panel data estimation technique, Multiple Regime Panel Smooth Transition Regression (MR-PSTR), which takes into account the nonlinearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 10 African countries that...

One characteristic of many macroeconomic and financial time series is their asymmetric behaviour during different phases of a business cycle. Oil price shocks have been amongst those economic variables that have been identified in theoretical and empirical literature to predict the phases of...

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the...

This paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no Granger causal...

This paper investigates the factors that drive and constrain remittance inflows into SubSaharan Africa (SSA) using annual data for 35 SSA countries from 1980 to 2008, generalised method of moments by Arellano and Bover (1995) and LSDV with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) corrected standard errors. We...