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In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as … “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii … are the only possible explanations of the “anomalies”, but offer statistical models within the rational theory of finance …
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This paper proposes a profit model for spread trading by focusing on the stochastic movement of the price spread and its first hitting time probability density. The model is general in that it can be used for any financial instrument. The advantage of the model is that the profit from the trades...
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In this paper, we revisit the equity premium puzzle reported in 1985 by Mehra and Prescott. We show that the large equity premium that they report can be explained by choosing a more appropriate distribution for the return data. We demonstrate that the high-risk aversion value observed by Mehra...
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The recovery rate on defaulted corporate bonds has a time-varying distribution. We propose machine learning approaches for intertemporal analysis of U.S. corporate bonds' recovery rates with a large number of predictors. The most informative macroeconomic variables are selected from a broad...
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