This paper examines how much structural change there was in the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there was only one major structural change, namely the huge increase in stock prices relative to earnings. All other large changes can...

This paper examines various interest rate rules, as well as policies derived by solving optimal control problems, for their ability to dampen economic fluctuations caused by random shocks. A tax rate rule is also considered. A multicountry econometric model is used for the experiments. The...

Tick data and newswire searches are used to find events that led to large and rapid changes in a stock future, a bond future, and three exchange rate futures. Knowledge of these events may be useful in future work. They have the

Where did Fitzgerald get the idea of having Clay's Economics reside in Nick Carraway's library?

This paper presents a computationally feasible procedure for the optimal control and stochastic simulation of large nonlinear models with rational expectations under the assumption of certainty equivalence.

This paper uses data on companies that have been in the S&P 500 index since 1957 to examine whether risk aversion has decreased since 1995. The evidence suggests that it has not. There is no evidence that more risky companies have had larger increases in their price-earnings ratios since 1995...

This paper outlines a bootstrapping approach to the estimation and analysis of macroeconometric models. It integrates for dynamic, nonlinear, simultaneous equation models the bootstrapping approach to evaluating estimators initiated by Efron (1979) and the stochastic simulation approach to...

Tick data on the S&P 500 futures contract and newswire searches are used to match events to large one- to five-minute stock price changes. 69 events that led to large stock pri

This paper takes a somewhat different approach from the recent literature in estimating exchange rate equations. It assumes uncovered interest rate parity and models how expectations are formed. Agents are assumed to base their expectations of future interest rates and prices, which are needed...

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the...