Favero, Carlo A.; Melone, Alessandro; Tamoni, Andrea - 2021
We study drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they … productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that … predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can originate from term premia or temporary deviations from …