In this paper, we derive and empirically test a regime-shifting dynamic term structure model for pricing interest rate caps. The central state variables are the target rate of the Federal Reserve and its latent regime in which it fluctuates. These state variables are driven by a discrete time...

The paper proposes in a regime-shift framework, an arbitrage-free term structure model based on the target and Fed Funds Rates. Empirical observations suggest that a three-state regime-shift environment associated with FOMC monetary actions is justified. Then, a closed-form solution for...