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Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats
Alabrese, Eleonora; Fetzer, Thiemo - 2024
constituencies, we find that pre-election polls significantly affect voter turnout. Non-competitive elections predicted by national …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517912
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Did austerity cause Brexit?
Fetzer, Thiemo - 2018
Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877825
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Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats
Alabrese, Eleonora; Fetzer, Thiemo - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565306
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Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats
Alabrese, Eleonora; Fetzer, Thiemo - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577950
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(How) do electoral surprises drive business cycles? : evidence from a new dataset
Fetzer, Thiemo; Yotzov, Ivan - 2023
This paper documents that surprise election outcomes - measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected … vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day … higher surprise is associated with a 0.37 percentage point lower year-on-year growth rate one year after the election. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320160
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(How) do electoral surprises drive business cycles? : evidence from a new dataset
Fetzer, Thiemo; Yotzov, Ivan - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320826
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(How) do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset
Fetzer, Thiemo; Yotzov, Ivan - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014323699
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(How) do electoral surprises drive business cycles? : evidence from a new dataset
Fetzer, Thiemo; Yotzov, Ivan - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014328581
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Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis
Becker, Sascha O. - 2017
On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. We analyze vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigration and trade provides relatively little explanatory power for the referendum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955422
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Tariffs and Politics : Evidence from Trump's Trade Wars
Fetzer, Thiemo - 2019
Are retaliatiory tariffs politically targeted and, if so, are they effective? Do countries designing a retaliation response face a trade-off between maximizing political targeting and mitigating domestic economic harm? We use the recent trade escalation between the US, China, the European Union...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890196