In this paper, we use a structural credit risk model developed by Geske (1977) and generalized by Chen et al. (2014) to assess the delinquency risk of U.S. Treasury debt implied by U.S. sovereign CDS spreads. We also use the fitted structural model to determine the implied debt ceiling for the...

We document the ability of the credit default swap (CDS) market to anticipate favorable as well as unfavorable credit rating change (RC) announcements based on more extensive samples of credit rating events and CDS spreads than previous studies. We obtain four new results. In contrast to prior...