A simple, two period framework is used to interpret existing contributions to the literature on decision rules for HTA under uncertainty and to contrast them with a dynamic, economic model solved using backward induction.

Referring to the literature on optimal stopping under sequential sampling developed by Chernoff and collaborators, we solve a dynamic model of the economic evaluation of a new health technology, deriving optimal rules for technology adoption, research abandonment and continuation as functions of...

type="main" xml:id="rssa12025-abs-0001" <title type="main">Summary</title> <p>We present a Bayes sequential economic evaluation model for health technologies in which an investigator has flexibility over the timing of a decision to stop carrying out research and to conclude that one technology is preferred to another on...</p>