Nonlinear modeling of adjustments to purchasing power parity has recently gained much attention. However, a huge body of the empirical literature applies ESTAR models and neglects the existence of other competing nonlinear models. Among these, the Markov Switching AR model has a strong...

This paper extends the real interest differential (RID) model of Frankel (1979) by introducing Markov regime switches for three exchange rates over the years 1973 - 2000. Evidence of a non-linear relationship between exchange rates and underlying fundamentals is provided. One of the regimes...

This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...

In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear re-lationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substan-tially improves the fit of the real interest rate...

This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank's high frequency dollar/euro trading, three different kinds of order flow are used in addition to seasonal...