American politicians often take it for granted that national security would be enhanced by accelerating domestic oil production, through policies such as subsidies, tax advantages, opening up federal lands for drilling at artificially low charges, and relaxing environmental regulation. This note...

Developing countries traditionally experience passthrough of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries experience. This is true equally of the determination of prices of imported goods, prices of local competitors’ products, and the general CPI. But...

The book American Economic Policy in the 1990s, which has a publication date of Spring 2002 from MIT Press, is the outcome of a conference held at the Kennedy School in June 2001. It brought together leading policy-makers and economists, with the goal of providing a preliminary history of U.S....

The multilateral regime to address the problem of global climate change is manifest in the Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in that city in 1997, and likely soon to enter into force. The multilateral regime to address international trade is manifest in the World Trade Organization, established in...

The paper begins by arguing that globalization, which here means reductions in the remaining barriers to international trade, still has a long way to go. Next it briefly reviews the evidence on the economic benefits from globalization, followed by a consideration of the non-economic effects in...

The word "institutions" covers a range of country characteristics, which vary widely: some are not very relevant to the business of the Fund (and, regarding some others, we cannot be confident of knowing what is best). Some recent empirical growth literature has adopted an intermediate level of...

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the context...

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises...

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. This paper uses econometrically-estimated determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world’s...

Might the dollar eventually follow the precedent of the pound and cede its status as leading international reserve currency? Unlike the last time this question was prominently discussed, ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates...