We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures....

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...