Many macro-economic forecasts and forecast updates, such as those from the IMF and OECD, typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition (namely, expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster), which is non-replicable. . Learning from previous mistakes can affect...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the...

Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The...

See the article in <I>Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM)</I> (2013). Volume 93(c), pages 9-18.<P> Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable....</p></i>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2013). Volume 29(4), pages 622-627.<P> It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions....</p></i>

For many economic time-series variables that are observed regularly and frequently, for example weekly, the underlying activity is not distributed uniformly across the year. For the aim of predicting annual data, one may consider temporal aggregation into larger subannual units based on an...