This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instability in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regression specification that is put forward allows for occasional...

This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for occasional...

Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970’s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid 1980’s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine if the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were...

We study risk perception and actual decision-making by the corporate elite, where we consider CEOs, CFOs and non-executives. We collect data for many members of the elite for Netherlands-based companies using the vignettes method. We find that CEOs are more risk tolerant but do not act...