Although high frequency diffusion data is nowadays available, common practice is still to only use yearly figures in order to get rid of seasonality. This paper proposes a diffusion model that captures seasonality in a way that naturally matches the overall S-shaped pattern. The model is based...

In this paper we introduce a model that is suitable to study the diffusion of new and dominant multi-generation technologies. Examples are computer operat- ing systems, mobile phone standards, video game consoles. Our model incorporates three new features that are not included in related models....

Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in unbiased...

We propose a method to include seasonality in any diffusion model that has a closed-form solution. The resulting diffusion model captures seasonality in a way that naturally matches the original diffusion model's pattern. The method assumes that additional sales at seasonal peaks are drawn from...