The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time - varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank...

To understand the relevance of marketing efforts, it has become standard practice to estimatethe long-run and short-run effects of the marketing-mix, using, say, weekly scanner data. Acommon vehicle for this purpose is an econometric time series model. Issues that areaddressed in the literature...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...

We propose a new empirical representation of the Bass diffusion model, in order to estimate thethree key parameters, concerning innovation, imitation and maturity. The representation isbased on the notion that the observed data may temporarily deviate from the mean pathdetermined by the...