-excitation for these series. Out-of-sample, we find that the models that include spillover effects forecast crashes and the Value …

available forecast for each forecaster and the difference between the average and the forecast that this forecaster previously … made. We extended the knowledge base by analyzing the unpredictable component of the earnings forecast. We found that for … some forecasters the unpredictable component can be used to improve upon the predictable forecast, but we also found that …