This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for occasional...

November 2006 most likely marks the launch of Sony’s PS3, the successor to PS2. Later, Nintendo is expected to launch the Wii, the successor to the GameCube. We answer the question in the title by analyzing the diffusion of the earlier generations of these consoles, and by using a new model...

Allocating the proper amount of shelf space to stock keeping units [SKUs] is an increasingly relevant and difficult topic for managers. Shelf space is a scarce resource and it has to be distributed across a larger and larger number of items. It is in particular important because the amount of...

We propose a dynamic direct mailing response model with competitive effects, where purchase and promotion history are incorporated. We then map the dynamic competitive interactions amongst the firms sending the mailings. We investigate the short- and long-run impact of a direct mailing on the...

In this paper we develop a new semi-parametric model for conditional correlations, which combines parametric univariate GARCH-type specifications for the individual conditional volatilities with nonparametric kernel regression for the conditional correlations. This approach not only avoids the...

Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970’s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid 1980’s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine if the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were...

In this paper we develop a new semi-parametric model for conditional correlations, which combines parametric univariate GARCH-type specifications for the individual conditional volatilities with nonparametric kernel regression for the conditional correlations. This approach not only avoids the...

This paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instability in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regression specification that is put forward allows for occasional...