Showing 1 - 10 of 104
In this paper we propose a model selection strategy for a univariate periodic autoregressive time series which involves tests for one or more unit roots and for parameter restrictions corresponding to seasonal unit roots and multiple unit roots at the zero frequency. Examples of models that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775178
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010553126
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, inten¬sively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010556072
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731816
We propose a new periodic autoregressive model for seasonally observed time series, where the number of seasons can potentially be very large. The main novelty is that we collect the periodic parameters in a second-level stochastic model. This leads to a random-coefficient periodic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731866
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778705
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009002164
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009002678
Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008621804
This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324977