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The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299141
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726321
The paper shows that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global equity markets. Analysing 50 equity markets worldwide, we find that returns fall on average around 3.8% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, ranging from a zero response in some to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003320671
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003427219
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003469710
The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003969262
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008796419
Transparency has become an almost universal virtue among central banks. The paper tests empirically, for the case of the Federal Reserve, two hypotheses about central bank transparency derived from the debate of Morris and Shin (2002) and Svensson (2006). First, the paper finds that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003599312
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009248386