This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate...

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar – euro/DEM exchange rate...

This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a suc cess rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of...

This paper analyses the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rates by investigating the importance of real-time data. We find that such economic news in the United States, Germany and the euro area have indeed been a driving force behind daily US dollar - euro/DEM exchange rate...

It seems clear that the ECB will raise interest rates in July 2022 and end its asset purchase program. This should send a strong and important signal to markets and economic players that the ECB continues to take its mandate for price stability seriously. However, it cannot be said with absolute...

It seems clear that the ECB will raise interest rates in July 2022 and end its asset purchase program. This should send a strong and important signal to markets and economic players that the ECB continues to take its mandate for price stability seriously. However, it cannot be said with absolute...

This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no...

The paper analyses the trade-off between exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy autonomy. It tests empirically the 'Possible Duality' hypothesis, i.e. whether countries with more flexible currency regimes are indeed able to exert more monetary policy autonomy than those with less flexible...

This paper deals with the very short-term influence of "oral interventions" on the exchange rate of major currencies. The paper finds that official communication, as reported by wire services, are effective in influencing the US dollar-euro and yen-US dollar exchange rates in the desired...

This paper focuses on the role of real exchange rate volatility as a driver of portfolio home bias, and in particular as an explanation for differences in home bias across financial assets. We present a Markowitz-type portfolio selection model in which real exchange rate volatility induces a...