Showing 1 - 10 of 99
expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than … experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295782
narratives in aggregate macroeconomic expectations. Using Granger causality tests and local projections, we provide empirical … evidence on the dynamics between inflation narratives and inflation expectations. Moreover, the paper highlights the vast … heterogeneity across shortterm and mid-term inflation expectations as well as socioeconomic groups. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015165656
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015175406
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011533620
narratives in aggregate macroeconomic expectations. Using Granger causality tests and local projections, we provide empirical … evidence on the dynamics between inflation narratives and inflation expectations. Moreover, the paper highlights the vast … heterogeneity across shortterm and mid-term inflation expectations as well as socioeconomic groups. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015149614
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459873
forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368847
Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308142
Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010309309
We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310454