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expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than … experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295782
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011533620
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We revisit the sources of the bias in Federal Reserve forecasts and assess whether a precautionary motive can explain the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to uncover members' implicit loss function. Our key finding is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294354
of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304433
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011341024
contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605128
period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263654
This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275423
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460766