an accurate calibration of forecast confidence intervals, and is better suited at long horizons and in high …

of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long …

Small or medium-scale VARs are commonly used in applied macroeconomics for forecasting and evaluating the shock … instability in a forecasting context. While none of the methods clearly emerges as best, some techniques turn out to be useful to … improve the forecasting performance. …

an accurate calibration of forecast confidence intervals, and is better suited at long horizons and in high …