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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191021
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
study experimentally to what extent cross-game learning can reduce overbidding in SPAs, taking into account cognitive skills … losses from high bids are more salient than in SPAs. Experience in FPAs causes substantial cross-game learning for … bid shading by cognitively more able participants, resulting in lower profits in FPAs. Thus, cross-game learning has the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314693
decision rules, and that only a quarter of them decide according to the toss of a fair coin. Reinforcement learning is the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281623
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
decision rules, and that only a quarter of them decide according to the toss of a fair coin. Reinforcement learning is the most … ; Mixed strategy ; Learning models ; Experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008689027
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810