This paper studies the term structure implications of a simple structural economy in which the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk...

Expected returns can hardly be estimated from time series data. Therefore, many recent papers suggest investing in the global minimum variance portfolio. The weights of this portfolio are usually estimated by replacing the true return covariance matrix by its time series estimator. However,...

It seems to be widely accepted that Jensen alpha fails to detect successful market timing funds spuriously indicating poor fund performance. Jensen (1972), Admati and Ross (1985), Dybvig and Ross (1985), and Grinblatt and Titman (1989), (1995) attribute that to an upwards biased estimate of the...

Nach §44 Investmentgesetz (InvG) sind Investmentfonds verpflichtet, im Rahmen ihres regelmäßigen Berichtswesens den Anlegern zumindest halbjährlich ihre Portfoliozusammensetzung bekannt zu geben. Häufigere oder auch detailliertere Portfolioveröffentlichung erhöht die Trans parenz des...

The aim of this paper is to explain why cross-sectional estimated migration correlations displayed in the academic and professional literature can be either not consistent, or inefficient, and to discuss alternative approaches. The analysis relies on a model with stochastic migration in which...

In this paper we explain how to use rating histories provided by the internal scoring systems of banks and by rating agencies in order to predict the future risk of a set of borrowers. The method is developed following the steps suggested by the Basle Committee. To introduce both migration...

In this paper we develop the rst estimator of the covariance matrix that relies solely onforward-looking information. This estimator only uses price information from a cross-sectionof plain-vanilla options. In an out-of-sample study for US blue-chip stocks we show that aminimum-variance strategy...

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit...

In this paper, we consider an incomplete market framework and explain how to use jointly observed prices of the underlying asset and of some derivatives written on this assetfor an efficient pricing of other derivatives. This question involves two types of moment restrictions, which can be...

We develop a continuous time general equilibrium yield curve model under ambiguity aversion. A moderate level of ‘aggregate ambiguity’ affects significantly the term structure and can drive the prices of common interest rate derivatives toward the patterns observed in fixed income markets....