We show that a model featuring an average commodity factor, a carry factor, and a momentum factor is capable of describing the cross-sectional variation of commodity returns. More parsimonious one- and two-factor models that feature only the average and/or carry factors are rejected. To provide...

This paper proposes an approach that associates the risk-neutral probability measure with option prices and then computes the expectation of quantities under the real world probability measure, exploiting the form of the stochastic discount factor. This approach deviates from foundational...

This paper proposes a measure of exchange rate disconnect. Working in a two-currency international economy, our theory implies that the disconnect is the ratio of two martingales. Weanalyze empirically our measure of disconnect using 406 pairs of economies to reveal a geography of disconnect....

The goal of Section I is to show the economic foundations for the form of the distortion function A[dt; κ] in equation (2). This is formalized through Proposition IA3 and Corollary IA4.Section II contains the proof of axiomatic consistency properties of the MAP performance measure (Section...

This technical note serves to establish proofs for the list of statements in Bakshi, Crosby,and Gao (2019). We maintain their notation. Equation numbers not prefixed by letters refer to equations in Bakshi, Crosby, and Gao (2019). Section I studies the quantitative implications of the Vasicek...

If the evolution of equity index volatility and the pricing kernel were to be absent of risks unspanned by index futures, it would counterfactually imply that (i) the expected excess return of OTM calls on futures is positive, (ii) the expected excess return of straddles is approximately zero,...

In our approach, the conditional expectation of asset return quantities, under the real-world probability measure, can be expressed as a linear combination of the prices of the risk-free bond, the asset, and options on the asset. The method is free of distributional assumptions, and we use it to...

We develop an axiomatically consistent way of ranking and scoring funds that respects an industry benchmark. Our performance measure, termed MAP, accounts for the feature that investors may exhibit skepticism when evaluating investment strategies versus a benchmark. Linking developed theory to...

Key to deriving the lower bound to the expected excess return of the market in Martin (2017) is the assumption of the negative correlation condition (NCC). We improve on the lower bound characterization by proposing an exact formula for the conditional expected excess return of the market. In...

We formalize the notion of local time risk premium in the context of a theory in which the pricing kernel is a general diffusion process with spanned and unspanned components. We derive results on the expected excess return of options on bond futures. These results are organized around our...