In this paper, we study the relationship between default probability and stock returns. Using the market-based measure of Expected Default Frequency* (EDF) constructed by Moody's KVM, we first demonstrate that higher default probabilities are not necessarily associated with higher expected stock...

This paper examines the relationship between default probability and stock returns. Using the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) of Moody's KMV, we document that higher default probabilities are not associated with higher expected stock returns. Within a model of bargaining between equity-holders...

This paper examines the relationship between default probability and stock returns. Using the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) of Moody's KMV, we document that higher default probabilities are not associated with higher expected stock returns. Within a model of bargaining between equity holders...

We explicitly consider financial leverage in a simple equity valuation model and study the cross-sectional implications of potential shareholder recovery upon resolution of financial distress. We show that our model is capable of simultaneously explaining lower returns for financially distressed...