An examination of GNP forecasts and their implications for monetary policy, showing that although such forecasts have lessened uncertainty about the economy's future course, the errors are still too large to justify basing monetary policy on the near-term GNP outlook alone.

An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth, showing that the Federal Reserve's change in emphasis to monetary targeting in late 1979 could have made the apparently long lag from money growth to inflation virtually...

A comparison of the performance of forecasts by economists (the Livingston survey), households (the Michigan Survey of Consumer Finances), and a time series model (ARIMA).