Real-time macroeconomic data refl ect the information available to market participants, whereas fi nal data-containing revisions and released with a delay-overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is signifi...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This...

We use a quantile-based measure of conditional skewness (or asymmetry) that is robust to outliers and therefore particularly suited for recalcitrant series such as emerging market returns. Our study is on the following portfolio returns: developed markets, emerging markets, the world, and...

Real-time macroeconomic data reflect the information available to market participants, whereas final data's containing revisions and released with a delays' overstate the information set available to them. We document that the in-sample and out-of-sample Treasury return predictability is...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This...

We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast updates of the current (nowcasting) and future quarters. Our...

Macroeconomic data are typically subject to future revisions and released with delay. Predictive return regressions using such data therefore potentially overstate the information set available to investors in real time. We document that data revisions account for a sizable share of in-sample...

This paper examines price discovery and liquidity provision in the secondary market for bitcoin -- an asset that has no observable fundamentals and is associated with a high level of speculative trading. Based on a comprehensive dataset of the full limit order book of BTC-e over the 2013-2014...

The risk-return trade-off implies that a riskier investment should demand a higher expected return relative to the risk-free return. The approach of Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2005) consisted of estimating the risk-return trade-off with a mixed frequency, or MIDAS, approach. MIDAS...

We rely on recently developed general equilibrium asset pricing models, from which we derive some predictions about how heterogeneity of beliefs affects return and volatility dynamics. The first contribution of our paper is the derivation of a simple decomposition of the conditional stock...